|15%
|15%
|}
|}
===Market Odds===
”’ Republican vs. Democrat”’
{| class=”wikitable” style=”font-size:90%;text-align:center;”
|- style=”vertical-align:bottom”
! Poll source
! Date(s)<br />administered
! Sample<br />size{{efn|name=”Key”|Key:<br />A – all adults<br />RV – registered voters<br />LV – likely voters<br />V – unclear}}
! Margin<br />of error
! style=”width:100px;”| Republican<br />(R)
! style=”width:100px;”| Democrat<br />(D)
! Other
! Undecided
|-
|style=”text-align:left;|Kalshi<ref>{{cite tweet|number=2011272771385638933|title=Kalshi
|January 14, 2026
|$95,161 vol (LV)
|± 2.0%
|57%
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|”’43%”’
|–
|
== Notes ==
== Notes ==
|
|
The 2026 United States Senate election in Alaska will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Alaska. A jungle primary election will be held on August 18, 2026, from which the top four candidates will advance to the general election, which will be conducted under ranked-choice voting.
Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, having been re-elected in 2020 with 53.9% of the vote,[1] has declared his re-election bid. Former U.S. Representative from Alaska’s at-large congressional district Mary Peltola is also running for this seat.[2] Alaska has been represented in the U.S. Senate exclusively by Republicans since 2015.
Mary Peltola (D)
- Executive branch officials
- Organizations
- Labor unions
Dan Sullivan (R)
- Executive branch officials
- U.S. senators
- Labor unions
| Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Dan Sullivan (R) | $5,984,000 | $1,955,654 | $4,760,089 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[14] | |||
Dan Sullivan vs. Mary Peltola
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Dan Sullivan (R) |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research[19] | January 8–11, 2026 | 1,998 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 46% | 48% | – | 6% |
| Data for Progress (D)[20] | October 17–23, 2025 | 823 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 5%[b] | 4% |
| Alaska Survey Research[21] | October 10–15, 2025 | 1,708 (LV) | – | 46% | 48% | – | 6% |
| Alaska Survey Research[22] | July 29 – August 1, 2025 | 1,623 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 47% | 42% | – | 11% |
| Data for Progress (D)[23] | July 21–27, 2025 | 678 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 5%[c] | 4% |
| Alaska Survey Research[24] | April 21–25, 2023 | 1,261 (LV) | – | 41% | 44% | – | 15% |
- ^ Axelrod, Tal; Budryk, Zack (November 11, 2020). “Sullivan wins reelection in Alaska, giving Republicans 50 seats in Senate”. The Hill – via MSN.
- ^ “Peltola ties congressional loss to ‘timing and luck,’ and eyes future plans with a laugh”. Yahoo News. December 5, 2024. Retrieved March 19, 2025.
- ^ Downing, Suzanne (March 22, 2025). “Breaking: Sen. Dan Sullivan formally announces his campaign for reelection”. Must Read Alaska. Retrieved June 4, 2025.
- ^ “MIKLOS, CHRISTOPHER – Candidate overview”. Federal Election Commission. January 1, 2019. Retrieved May 18, 2025.
- ^ Downing, Suzanne (July 21, 2025). “Democrats have their challenger for Sen. Dan Sullivan – and she works for an Alaska newspaper”. Must Read Alaska. Retrieved September 19, 2025.
- ^ Nichols, Hans (January 12, 2026). “Mary Peltola plunges into Alaska Senate race”. Axios. Retrieved January 12, 2026.
- ^ Samuels, Iris (October 16, 2025). “Begich and Sullivan maintain fundraising efforts ahead of 2026 elections”. Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved October 25, 2025.
- ^ “Alaska Division of Elections, Candidates”. October 14, 2025. Retrieved October 25, 2025.
- ^ Courtney, Wil (January 12, 2026). “Peltola Senate challenge draws national battle lines as Murkowski backs Sullivan”. www.alaskasnewssource.com. Retrieved January 13, 2026.
- ^ Altimari, Daniela (January 12, 2026). “Former Rep. Mary Peltola enters Alaska Senate race in boost to Democrats”. Roll Call. Retrieved January 12, 2026.
- ^ a b Brooks, James; Smith, Corinne (January 12, 2026). “Mary Peltola announces run for Alaska U.S. Senate, challenging incumbent Dan Sullivan”. Alaska Beacon. Retrieved January 13, 2026.
- ^ “Trump endorses Alaska US Senator Dan Sullivan”.
- ^ Ruskin, Liz (January 12, 2026). “Mary Peltola enters Alaska U.S. Senate race”. Alaska Public Media. Retrieved January 12, 2026.
- ^ “2026 Election United States Senate – Alaska”. fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved July 17, 2025.
- ^ Gonzales, Nathan L. “Senate Ratings”. Inside Elections. Retrieved January 12, 2026.
- ^ “2026 CPR Senate Race ratings”. Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 12, 2026.
- ^ “2026 Senate”. Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 12, 2026.
- ^ “2026 Senate Forecast”. Race to the WH. Retrieved March 19, 2025.
- ^ @PollTracker2024 (January 14, 2026). “Alaska Research Survey Poll” (Tweet). Retrieved January 13, 2026 – via Twitter.
- ^ Ruskin, Liz (October 31, 2025). “New poll shows Peltola neck-and-neck with Sullivan, if she were to run for U.S. Senate”. Alaska Public Media. Retrieved November 1, 2025.
- ^ Sabbatini, Mark (October 22, 2025). “Poll: Peltola ahead of Sullivan in race that could decide control of US Senate”. Juneau Independent. Retrieved October 23, 2025.
- ^ “2025 Summer Alaska Survey Report”. Alaska Survey Research. August 22, 2025. Retrieved August 25, 2025.
- ^ “Mary Peltola Would Be Front-Runner for Alaska Governor”. Data for Progress. August 8, 2025. Retrieved August 8, 2025.
- ^ Downing, Suzanne (May 2, 2023). “New poll says Rep. Mary Peltola could take Sen. Dan Sullivan in 2026”. Must Read Alaska. Retrieved May 8, 2025.
- Official campaign websites
