PAKISTAN had set Sept 1, 2025, as the deadline for Afghan migrants to return to Afghanistan. This is the culmination of the Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan that started in November 2023.
Even those with proper documentation, such as Proof of Registration cards, or those born in Pakistan are not exempt. This misguided policy is wrong in every way. From a moral and religious point of view, loyalties to the notion of a nation state (a Western concept), do not eclipse our responsibilities towards fellow human beings, especially the ummah. The experience of the Holy Prophet (PBUH) and his companions in Madina is a clear lesson on how refugees and settlers should be treated.
Religious teachings do not approve of expelling a population in their time of need just because global funding for their upkeep has dried up. For a country that declares Islam as the state religion, this argument should suffice as to why deportation should not be considered. For those of a more liberal persuasion, the deportations violate international law under the principle of non-refoulement covered by the Refugees Convention. While Pakistan is not a signatory to the convention, it did vote in favour of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights from where this law draws its inspiration.
Many justifiably doubt whether an argument based on ethics, morality or human rights will prevail in Pakistan. So, let’s examine the strategic side of this policy. Two key reasons are cited in favour of deportation: first, that Afghan settlers pose a national security threat to Pakistan. Second, to a smaller extent, that they are a burden on the economy and the social services. In fact, the reality is that the large majority of militants fighting against the state are Pakistani citizens and the primary perpetrators of terrorist attacks in the country. This is further evidenced by the fact that terrorist attacks have increased rather than declined since the mass deportation of Afghans began in 2023.
In 2023, there were 141 major incidents of terrorism; in 2024 there were 240, and so far in 2025 there have been 265 major attacks according to data from the South Asia Terrorism Portal. If this policy was to remove a supposed threat to national security, the trend should be the opposite, but clearly the Afghans living in Pakistan were not actually driving terrorism.
As for the notion that Afghan refugees contribute to major crimes, the data does not support it. Admittedly, more analysis of this is needed, but a study in KP looking at prosecution and police data from 2014 to 2016, showed that only a little over one per cent of major crimes were committed by Afghans.
This low number is in spite of the fact that systemic bias exists against Afghans and cases are registered against them based on their compromised standing in Pakistani society. This data is supported by many studies on the connection of immigrants and refugees to crime globally as well. Given the vulnerable societal position of immigrants and the greater consequences for them, including deportation, they have another reason to stay away from illegal activities.
The reality is that this policy is short-sighted and is not grounded in coherent strategic objectives.
Where the argument about the economic and social services burden is concerned, while it is true that refugees can put pressure on local communities, in the case of Afghans the case is a bit more complex. First, vast funds have been given to Pakistan to house these migrants, and many social service centres, including hospitals and schools, have been opened in the communities by donors to reduce this pressure where Afghans have settled. Second, many Afghans are now an integral part of the local economy where they reside, creating jobs and being contributors to it.
Third, while the Afghans cannot use government service centres, such as hospitals and schools, in the private sector, many health and educational outlets depend heavily on the business that the migrants generate. The fact that the primary push for the expulsion of Afghan migrants has not come from the communities where they reside, but from elsewhere, shows that economic consequences for communities was not actually a major concern. Hence, a better analysis backed by data should be done rather than making policies based on negative assumptions and prejudice.
Moreover, the reality is that the Afghan diaspora settled in Pakistan have historically formed an important lobby advocating for better Pak-Afghan relations back in their homeland. This group, and their relatives in Afghanistan, have an incentive to advocate for stability in Pakistan and increased trade and cooperation between both countries, since their livelihoods depend on a stable prosperous Pakistan. By expelling Afghans, Pakistan is losing important leverage vis-Ã -vis Afghanistan for future issues, as well as the significant goodwill they had built.
The reality is that this policy is short-sighted and is not grounded in coherent strategic objectives. Mainstream Pakistan and the establishment have a vision of what it means to be ‘Pakistani’. Unfortunately, those crossing over from the western border do not conform to that image. Many of those being deported, or in the queue, were, in fact, born in Pakistan and have lived here all their lives. Interestingly, some families migrated to Pakistan as early as the late 1970s, just a few years after migrants from India were still moving to Pakistan. However, unlike Afghan migrants, the identity or loyalties of migrants from the eastern border have sensibly not been questioned by the state.
Due to Pakistan’s weak implementation capacity and the policy’s unpopularity in many communities housing Afghan residents, numerous Afghans still reside in Pakistan even after the deadline date has passed. If for no other reason than because of strategic considerations, the government should reconsider this policy. As for mainstream Pakistan, it would greatly benefit from embracing the diversity within the country’s borders rather than fearing it.
The writer is a development practitioner and a former parliamentarian.
X: @GhaziGJ
Published in Dawn, October 4th, 2025
