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| NC Report/La Razón <ref name=”SMOct25″ group=”p”>{{cite web |title= Mañueco se acerca a la absoluta, pero seguiría necesitando a Vox para ser investido |url=https://www.larazon.es/espana/manueco-acerca-absoluta-pero-seguiria-necesitando-vox-ser-investido_2025102068f52b62de40d8089e15ed5e.html |language=es |work=El Español |date=20 October 2025}}</ref>
| NC Report/La Razón <ref name=”SMOct25″ group=”p”>{{cite web |title= Mañueco se acerca a la absoluta, pero seguiría necesitando a Vox para ser investido |url=https://www.larazon.es/espana/manueco-acerca-absoluta-pero-seguiria-necesitando-vox-ser-investido_2025102068f52b62de40d8089e15ed5e.html |language=es |work=El Español |date=20 October 2025}}</ref>
| 26 Sep-9 Oct 2025
| 26 Oct 2025
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Election in the Spanish region of Castile and León
A regional election will be held in Castile and León no later than Sunday, 15 March 2026, to elect the 12th Cortes of the autonomous community. All 81 seats in the Cortes will be up for election. The regional government confirmed in September 2025 that, should no snap general election take place earlier, the regional election will most likely be held on the latest possible date.
Under the 2007 Statute of Autonomy, the Cortes of Castile and León are the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]
Voting for the Cortes is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castile and León and in full enjoyment of their political rights, provided that they are not sentenced—by a final court ruling—to deprivation of the right to vote.[2][3][4] Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the “begged” or expat vote system (Spanish: Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote.[5] The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.[6]
The Cortes of Castile and León are entitled to three seats per each multi-member constituency—corresponding to the provinces of Ávila, Burgos, León, Palencia, Salamanca, Segovia, Soria, Valladolid and Zamora—plus one additional seat per each 45,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 22,500. All members are elected using the D’Hondt method and a closed list proportional voting system, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes (which includes blank ballots) being applied in each constituency.[2][7] The use of the electoral method may result in a higher effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.[8]
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency would be entitled the following seats (as of 12 December 2024):[e]
The law does not provide for by-elections to fill vacated seats; instead, any vacancies that occur after the proclamation of candidates and into the legislative term will be covered by the successive candidates in the list and, when required, by the designated substitutes.[10][11]
The term of the Cortes of Castile and León expires four years after the date of their previous election, unless they are dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Castile and León (BOCYL), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication.[2][12][13] The previous election was held on 13 February 2022, which means that the legislature’s term will expire on 13 February 2026. The election decree shall be published in the BOCYL no later than 20 January 2026, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible date for election day on Sunday, 15 March 2026.
The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castile and León and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution.[12][14] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[15]
In late 2024, it emerged that regional president Alfonso Fernández Mañueco was considering to call a snap election in the event of being unable to get his 2025 budget passed through parliament, following Vox‘s decision to exit the cabinet earlier that year,[16] but this was ultimately rejected by Mañueco.[17] Nonetheless, it was expected throughout 2025 that he would advance the election date in the event of an early general election call by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.[18] On 16 September 2025, the regional government confirmed that the election would most likely be held on 15 March 2026—the latest possible date in which it could legally be held—except in the event of a snap general election taking place earlier, in which case both would be held concurrently.[19][20]
Parliamentary composition
[edit]
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the present time.[21][22]
| Groups | Parties | Legislators | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | Total | ||||
| People’s Parliamentary Group | PP | 31 | 31 | ||
| Socialist Parliamentary Group | PSOE | 28 | 28 | ||
| Vox Castile and León Parliamentary Group | Vox | 11 | 11 | ||
| Leonese People’s Union– Soria Now! Group |
UPL | 3 | 6 | ||
| SY | 3 | ||||
| Mixed Group | Podemos | 1 | 3 | ||
| XAV | 1 | ||||
| IzqEsp | 1[f] | ||||
| Non-Inscrits | INDEP | 2[g] | 2 | ||
Parties and candidates
[edit]
The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant electoral commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[25][26]
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party’s colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The “Lead” column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Voting intention estimates
[edit]
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of “don’t know” responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 41 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castile and León.
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
Preferred President
[edit]
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Castile and León.
Predicted President
[edit]
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president of the Regional Government of Castile and León.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | .jpg)
|
.jpg)
|
Other/ None/ Not care |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mañueco PP |
Martínez PSOE |
||||||
| SocioMétrica/El Español[p 1] | 6–9 Oct 2025 | 1,200 | 51.8 | 17.7 | – | 30.6 | 34.1 |
| Sigma Dos/RTVCyL[p 3] | 27 May–7 Jun 2025 | 2,700 | 68.5 | 15.5 | – | – | 53.0 |
- ^ Currently serving as mayor of Soria.
- ^ UPL does not field candidates outside of León (13 seats), Salamanca (10 seats) and Zamora (7 seats) and therefore cannot obtain a majority in parliament.
- ^ Within the Unidas Podemos alliance in the 2022 election.
- ^ XAV does not field candidates outside of Ávila (7 seats) and Valladolid (15 seats) and therefore cannot obtain a majority in parliament.
- ^ This seat allocation has been manually calculated by applying the electoral rules set out in the law, on the basis of the latest official population figures provided by the Spanish government as of 2025. As such, it should be deemed as a provisional, non-binding estimation. The definitive allocation will be determined by the election decree at the time of the parliament’s dissolution.[9]
- ^ Francisco Igea, former CS legislator.[23]
- ^ Ana Rosa Hernando and Javier Teira, former Vox legislators.[24]
- ^ Results for Podemos–IU–AV in the 2022 election.
- ^ a b Within Sumar.
- ^ Responses denoting a party’s generic candidate are aggregated to that party’s main candidate/leader at the time of the poll.
- Opinion poll sources
- Other
- ^ Statute (2007), arts. 20 & 24.
- ^ a b c Statute (2007), art. 21.
- ^ LECyL (1987), art. 2.
- ^ LOREG (1985), arts. 2–3.
- ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). “Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote”. cafebabel.co.uk. Archived from the original on 31 August 2021. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
- ^ Araque Conde, Pilar (8 June 2022). “El Congreso acaba con el voto rogado: diez años de trabas burocráticas para los residentes en el extranjero”. Público (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 31 July 2022.
- ^ LECyL (1987), arts. 18–20.
- ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). “Effective threshold in electoral systems”. Dublin: Trinity College Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
- ^ Real Decreto 1210/2024, de 28 de noviembre, por el que se declaran oficiales las cifras de población resultantes de la revisión del Padrón municipal referidas al 1 de enero de 2024 (Royal Decree 1210/2024). Official State Gazette (in Spanish). 28 November 2024. Retrieved 23 December 2024.
- ^ LECyL (1987), arts. 21 & 26.
- ^ LOREG (1985), arts. 46 & 48.
- ^ a b LECyL (1987), art. 16.
- ^ LOREG (1985), art. 42.
- ^ Statute (2007), arts. 21, 27 & 37.
- ^ Statute (2007), art. 26.
- ^ Lamet, Juanma (10 December 2024). “El PP ya abre la puerta de elecciones en primavera en Castilla y León y Baleares”. El Mundo (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 4 October 2025.
- ^ “Mañueco no contempla adelantar elecciones y presentará los presupuestos cuando tenga los “apoyos necesarios”“ (in Spanish). Cadena SER. Ical. 6 December 2024. Retrieved 4 October 2025.
- ^ García de Blas, Elsa (4 August 2025). “Castilla y León y Andalucía adelantarán sus elecciones si Sánchez anticipa las generales”. El País (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 4 October 2025.
- ^ Álvarez, Beatriz (16 September 2025). “Castilla y León irá a las urnas el 15 de marzo de 2026” (in Spanish). Cadena SER. Retrieved 16 September 2025.
- ^ “El PP fija el 15 de marzo de 2026 como “fecha más probable” para las elecciones autonómicas de Castilla y León”. elDiario.es (in Spanish). Valladolid. EFE. 16 September 2025. Retrieved 4 October 2025.
- ^ Lozano, Carles. “Elecciones a Cortes de Castilla y León (desde 1983)”. Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 October 2025.
- ^ “El Parlamento. Legislaturas anteriores. XI Legislatura”. Cortes of Castile and León (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 October 2025.
- ^ a b Hurtado, Julio (28 September 2023). “Ciudadanos expulsa a Francisco Igea y le exige que devuelva su acta en Castilla y León”. La Vanguardia (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 September 2023.
- ^ “Vox expulsa de su grupo en CyL a dos procuradores tras pedir primarias” (in Spanish). Valladolid: Europa Press. 31 January 2025. Retrieved 1 February 2025.
- ^ LECyL (1987), arts. 25–26.
- ^ LOREG (1985), art. 44.
- ^ Vargas, Lino (7 January 2025). “Tudanca no seguirá al frente del PSOE-CyL y bendice la candidatura del alcalde de Soria: “Tendrá mi apoyo”“. El Confidencial (in Spanish). Retrieved 10 January 2025.
- ^ “Carlos Martínez, proclamado secretario regional del PSOECyL”. Heraldo-Diario de Soria (in Spanish). Soria. 9 January 2025. Retrieved 10 January 2025.
- ^ “El PSOE oficializa la candidatura de Carlos Martínez, a quien respaldará Pedro Sánchez en León”. elDiario.es (in Spanish). EFE. 1 October 2025. Retrieved 1 October 2025.
- ^ González, Miguel (12 July 2024). “PP y Vox consuman su ruptura en los gobiernos autonómicos con la salida de altos cargos del partido ultra”. El País (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 12 July 2024.
- ^ “David Hierro será el nuevo portavoz de Vox en las Cortes”. Diario Palentino (in Spanish). 3 February 2025. Retrieved 23 May 2025.
- ^ Estaire Cabañas, Óscar (18 September 2025). “Vox no elegirá a su candidato en Castilla y León hasta que se convoquen las elecciones: “Será mejor que los de PP y PSOE”“. El Español (in Spanish). Valladolid. Retrieved 11 October 2025.
- ^ “Miguel Ángel Llamas releva a Pablo Fernández al frente de Podemos en Castilla y León”. Público (in Spanish). Valladolid. EFE. 28 June 2025. Retrieved 11 October 2025.
- ^ Salvador, Alvar (21 September 2025). “Llamas irá a las primarias de Podemos para presidir la Junta y descarta una coalición con IU: “Es muy improbable”“. El Español (in Spanish). Retrieved 21 September 2025.
- ^ “Sumar, IU y Verdes Equo irán en coalición a las elecciones del 15M en Castilla y León”. ABC (in Spanish). Valladolid. 22 September 2025. Retrieved 24 September 2025.
- ^ “Alicia Gallego llega a la Secretaría General de UPL para «dar solución a los problemas de los ciudadanos» frente a «la política de salsa rosa»”. Leo Noticias (in Spanish). 14 June 2025. Retrieved 14 June 2025.
