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”’Political betting”’ or ”’political gambling”'<ref name=Pickles2024>{{cite web |last1=Pickles |first1=Anthony |title=US Election: Why have the political gambling markets moved so far in Trump’s favour?-far-in-trumps-favour |url=https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/news/2024/us-election-why-have-the-political-gambling-markets-moved-so-far-in-trumps-favour |website=University of Birmingham |access-date=21 January 2026}}</ref> is the practice of [[gambling|wagering money]] on the outcome of political events, ranging from national elections <ref name=Pickles2024/> and leadership contests to specific policy decisions<ref name=”l099″>{{cite book | last1=Rhode | first1=Paul W. | last2=Strumpf | first2=Koleman | title=The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Gambling | chapter=The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective | publisher=Oxford University Press | date=2013-11-12 | isbn=978-0-19-979791-2 | doi=10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.013.0029 | url=https://academic.oup.com/edited-volume/36333/chapter/318726499 | access-date=2026-01-21 | page=559–586}}</ref>. |
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#REDIRECT [[Mike Smithson (British journalist)]] |
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==History== |
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Betting on election results was documented in the [[United Kingdom]] as early as the 18th century. However, increased government regulation of gambling in the the 19th centuries led to a rapid decline in political betting. <ref name=”l099″/>. |
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In the late 20th and early 21st centuries, political betting evolved into organized prediction markets—exchange platforms where participants trade contracts tied to real-world events. The Iowa Electronic Markets, established in 1988 at the [[University of Iowa]], were among the first markets to permit political betting.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Blythe |first1=Bruce |title=Prediction markets: The intersection of forecasting and investing |url=https://www.britannica.com/money/prediction-markets |website=Britannica |access-date=21 January 2026}}</ref> Following pullback in the regulatory environment under the [[Donald Trump|Trump]] administration, increased investment and expansion in political betting market was significantly expanded.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Allyn |first1=Bobby |title=Election betting on prediction markets apps is set to boom ahead of midterms |url=https://www.npr.org/2025/12/23/nx-s1-5647749/rise-of-prediction-markets |website=NPR |access-date=21 January 2026}}</ref> |
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==Legal status== |
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The legality of political betting varies by jurisdiction. In the United Kingdom and many European countries, wagering on political events through licensed bookmakers is legal.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Francis |first1=Sam |title=Lifting the lid on the world of political betting |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6pp5emm95do |website=BBC |access-date=21 January 2026}}</ref> While [[Democratic_Party_(United_States)|Democrat]]s opposite political betting, markets such as PredictIt have operated in the United States under regulatory exemptions by Trump administration<ref>{{cite web |last1=Allyn |first1=Bobby |title=They quit their day jobs to bet on current events. A look inside the prediction market mania |url=https://www.npr.org/2026/01/17/nx-s1-5672615/kalshi-polymarket-prediction-market-boom-traders-slang-glossary |access-date=21 January 2026}}</ref>. |
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==Ethical concerns== |
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Advocates argue that political betting markets can serve as forecasting tools. Because traders have financial incentives to predict accurately, market prices can aggregate diverse information and reflect the collective judgment of participants.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Leigh |first1=Andrew |last2=Wolfers |first2=Justin |title=Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets |url=https://www.nber.org/papers/w12053?utm_source=chatgpt.com |website=NBER |access-date=21 January 2026}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=Wingard |first1=Jason |title=The Polymarket Effect: How Prediction Markets Are Beating The Experts |url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonwingard/2025/11/19/the-polymarket-effect-how-prediction-markets-are-beating-the-experts/ |website=Forbes}}</ref> |
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Critics argue that political betting markets can be ethically problematic and unreliable. Some scholars suggest that political predicting market may underperform polls in certain contexts and can be distorted by low liquidity, speculative behavior, or manipulation.<ref>{{cite web |last1=A. Sonnenfeld |first1=Jeffrey |last2=Tian |first2=Steven |last3=Scaramucci |first3=Anthony |title=Don’t Trust the Political Prediction Markets |url=https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/dont-trust-the-political-prediction-markets?utm_source=chatgpt.com |website=Yale Insights}}</ref> Others express concerns that real-money betting on political outcomes could trivialize [[democratic process]]es or incentivize market participants to act on [[privileged information]].<ref>{{cite web |last1=Matthews |first1=Laura |title=US appeals court clears Kalshi to restart elections betting |url=https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-federal-court-upholds-ruling-letting-kalshiex-list-election-betting-contracts-2024-10-02/ |website=Reuters |access-date=21 January 2026}}</ref> |
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==See Also== |
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*[[Prediction Market]] |
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==References== |
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{{reflist}} |
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Latest revision as of 07:10, 21 January 2026
Political betting or political gambling[1] is the practice of wagering money on the outcome of political events, ranging from national elections [1] and leadership contests to specific policy decisions[2].
Betting on election results was documented in the United Kingdom as early as the 18th century. However, increased government regulation of gambling in the the 19th centuries led to a rapid decline in political betting. [2].
In the late 20th and early 21st centuries, political betting evolved into organized prediction markets—exchange platforms where participants trade contracts tied to real-world events. The Iowa Electronic Markets, established in 1988 at the University of Iowa, were among the first markets to permit political betting.[3] Following pullback in the regulatory environment under the Trump administration, increased investment and expansion in political betting market was significantly expanded.[4]
The legality of political betting varies by jurisdiction. In the United Kingdom and many European countries, wagering on political events through licensed bookmakers is legal.[5] While Democrats opposite political betting, markets such as PredictIt have operated in the United States under regulatory exemptions by Trump administration[6].
Advocates argue that political betting markets can serve as forecasting tools. Because traders have financial incentives to predict accurately, market prices can aggregate diverse information and reflect the collective judgment of participants.[7][8]
Critics argue that political betting markets can be ethically problematic and unreliable. Some scholars suggest that political predicting market may underperform polls in certain contexts and can be distorted by low liquidity, speculative behavior, or manipulation.[9] Others express concerns that real-money betting on political outcomes could trivialize democratic processes or incentivize market participants to act on privileged information.[10]
- ^ a b Pickles, Anthony. “US Election: Why have the political gambling markets moved so far in Trump’s favour?-far-in-trumps-favour”. University of Birmingham. Retrieved 21 January 2026.
- ^ a b Rhode, Paul W.; Strumpf, Koleman (2013-11-12). “The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective”. The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Gambling. Oxford University Press. p. 559–586. doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.013.0029. ISBN 978-0-19-979791-2. Retrieved 2026-01-21.
- ^ Blythe, Bruce. “Prediction markets: The intersection of forecasting and investing”. Britannica. Retrieved 21 January 2026.
- ^ Allyn, Bobby. “Election betting on prediction markets apps is set to boom ahead of midterms”. NPR. Retrieved 21 January 2026.
- ^ Francis, Sam. “Lifting the lid on the world of political betting”. BBC. Retrieved 21 January 2026.
- ^ Allyn, Bobby. “They quit their day jobs to bet on current events. A look inside the prediction market mania”. Retrieved 21 January 2026.
- ^ Leigh, Andrew; Wolfers, Justin. “Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets”. NBER. Retrieved 21 January 2026.
- ^ Wingard, Jason. “The Polymarket Effect: How Prediction Markets Are Beating The Experts”. Forbes.
- ^ A. Sonnenfeld, Jeffrey; Tian, Steven; Scaramucci, Anthony. “Don’t Trust the Political Prediction Markets”. Yale Insights.
- ^ Matthews, Laura. “US appeals court clears Kalshi to restart elections betting”. Reuters. Retrieved 21 January 2026.
