User:TSK 2021/sandbox: Difference between revisions

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from:08/08/2020 till:18/08/2020 color:C3 text:”Nana (C3)”

from:08/08/2020 till:18/08/2020 color:C3 text:”Nana (C3)”

from:12/08/2020 till:16/08/2020 color:C5 text:”Omar (C4)”

from:12/08/2020 till:16/08/2020 color:C5 text:”Omar (C4)”

from:15/08/2020 till:31/12/2020 color:TS text:”Paulette (C5)”

from:15/08/2020 till:/12/2020 color:TS text:”Paulette (C5)”

from:01/09/2020 till:03/09/2020 color:C1 text:”[[Hurricane Nana (2020)|Nana (C1)]]”

from:01/09/2020 till:03/09/2020 color:C1 text:”[[Hurricane Nana (2020)|Nana (C1)]]”

from:07/09/2020 till:16/09/2020 color:C2

from:07/09/2020 till:16/09/2020 color:C2

Seasonal summary

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Background

Map showing that every U.S. county along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coast had some form of watch or warning issued during the 2020 season

Overall, the Atlantic tropical cyclones of 2020 collectively resulted in 416 deaths and more than $51.114 billion in damage, making the season one of the costliest on record.[1] The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1 and ended on November 30.[2] However, tropical cyclogenesis began in the month of May, with tropical storms Arthur and Bertha, marking the sixth consecutive year with an off-season storm. It was the first year with two pre-season storms since 2016, and the first to have two named storms in May since 2012.[3] The season featured 31 tropical depressions,[4] 30 of which became tropical or subtropical storms. The latter total surpassed the previous record of 28 set in 2005.[5] There were 14 hurricanes, which was the second most for a season,[5] behind only 2005.[6] Seven of the hurricanes intensified into major hurricanes, tying 2005 for the most in one season.[7] It was the fifth consecutive Atlantic hurricane season with above average activity, exceeding the previous longest streak of four years between 1998 and 2001. A total of 10 tropical cyclones underwent rapid intensification, tying the record set in 1995.[5]

The season extended the warm phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation ongoing since 1995. The warm AMO tends to produce tropical cyclones that are more intense and have longer durations. The presence of a La Niña contributed to the unprecedented amount of activity. Sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic basin were warmer-than-average. A strong west African monsoon, favorable wind patterns from Africa, weaker vertical wind shear all aided in the formation of tropical cyclones.[8] The ACE index for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was 180 units,[9] reflecting the season’s well-above-average activity.[10] Climate change likely played a role in the record-breaking season. Scientific American noted that “As the oceans absorb more and more of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases, waters will get warmer earlier in the season, which could help set new records in the future.”[11] A formal attribution study showed that the extreme rainfall was higher than in a counterfactual without climate change, especially for high-intensity storms.[12] Matthew Rosencrans, the lead forecaster at the National Weather Service, emphasized that climate change has been linked to the intensity of storms and their slow movements, but not to the amount of activity, which might instead be increasing due to improvements in technology.[13]

The season occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. Early in the year, officials in the United States expressed concerns the hurricane season could potentially exacerbate the effects of the pandemic for U.S. coastal residents.[14] As expressed in an op-ed of the Journal of the American Medical Association, “there exists an inherent incompatibility between strategies for population protection from hurricane hazards: evacuation and sheltering (i.e., transporting and gathering people together in groups)”, and “effective approaches to slow the spread of COVID-19: physical distancing and stay-at-home orders (i.e., separating and keeping people apart).”[15] A study published by GeoHealth in December 2020 confirmed a correlation between destination counties (a county in which an evacuee flees to) and an increase in COVID-19 cases.[16]

Record activity

Five simultaneous tropical cyclones active in the Atlantic on September 14: Sally (left), Paulette (center left), Rene (center right), Teddy (bottom right), and Vicky (far right)[nb 1]

The season featured activity at a record pace. The third named storm and each one from the fifth onwards formed on an earlier date in the year than the corresponding storm in any other season since reliable records began in 1851.[11] In late July, Hanna struck South Texas as the first hurricane of the season.[17] It was followed by the second hurricane of the season, Isaias, which moved through the Caribbean and eastern United States.[18] July 2020 tied 2005 for the most active July on record in the basin, with five named storms.[19][20] Laura and Marco formed toward the end of August, and the former became the first major hurricane of the season. Laura made landfall in southwest Louisiana on August 27 at Category 4 strength with 150 mph (240 km/h) winds.[21][22] September featured the formations of nine named storms, coinciding with the peak of the hurricane season and the development of La Niña conditions.[23][24][25] Hurricane Nana hit Belize in early September.[26] Paulette was the first hurricane to hit Bermuda since Gonzalo in 2014.[27] Hurricane Sally hit the Gulf Coast of the United States as a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane.[28] Teddy, the season’s eighth hurricane and second major hurricane formed on September 12,[29] while Vicky formed two days later. With the formation of the latter, five tropical cyclones were simultaneously active in the Atlantic basin for the first time since 1971.[23] Alpha developed atypically far east in the Atlantic and became the first tropical cyclone on record to strike Portugal.[30] Beta’s intensification into a tropical storm made September 2020 the most active month on record, with 10 named storms.[4] Beta went on to make landfall in Texas and impact the Deep South before dissipating,[31] marking an abrupt end to the heavy peak season activity.[11]

October and November were extremely active, with seven named storms developing, five of which intensified into major hurricanes – more than twice the number recorded during this period in any previous season.[32] Hurricane Gamma hit the Yucatán Peninsula in early October before being absorbed by Hurricane Delta, which hit the region a few days later. Delta struck Louisiana as a hurricane on October 9.[33][34] Hurricane Epsilon became a major hurricane near Bermuda.[35] Toward the end of the month, Hurricane Zeta struck the Yucatán Peninsula and later Louisiana, becoming the latest landfall for a major hurricane in the continental United States.[36] In November, two Category 4 hurricanes hit Nicaragua within a two-week period. Hurricane Eta moved from Central America to the Greater Antilles and southeastern United States. The season’s final hurricane was also its strongest. Hurricane Iota attained maximum sustained winds of 155 mph (249 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 917 mbar (27.1 inHg), before hitting Nicaragua.[37] The 2020 season became the first with two major hurricanes in the month of November.[38]

A total of eleven named storms made landfall in the United States,[8] breaking the previous record of nine in 1916. Six hurricanes hit the country, tying 1886 and 1985 for the most hurricane landfalls in a single season.[5] Eight of the eleven named storms struck the Gulf Coast of the United States.[38] Damage throughout the season totaled about $37 billion, including six hurricanes that inflicted at least $1 billion in damage; this was two more than the previous record of four in 2004 and 2005. Nearly the entire coastline from Texas to Maine was placed under some form of a watch or warning in relation to a tropical system,[5] with only Florida’s Jefferson and Wakulla counties being the exception.[39] Only five counties along the East Coast or Gulf Coast of the United States did not experience tropical storm-force winds. Louisiana in particular was heavily impacted in 2020, with the state recording four landfalls – three hurricanes and one tropical storm – tying the record set in 2002.[38] Outside the United States, a record 13 landfalls occurred.[38] The two November hurricanes in Central America set back economic development in Honduras by 22 years.[5]

  1. ^ Josh Fiallo (April 8, 2021). “2021 hurricane forecast: 17 storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major ones”. Tampa Bay Times. Archived from the original on August 11, 2021. Retrieved August 10, 2021.
  2. ^ Cite error: The named reference Apr13UA was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  3. ^ Jonathan Erdman (May 27, 2020). “Two Tropical Storms Form Before June 1 – Does That Mean an Active Hurricane Season Is Guaranteed?”. The Weather Channel. Archived from the original on August 9, 2021. Retrieved August 9, 2021.
  4. ^ a b Frank Billingsley (November 30, 2020). “Hurricane season is officially ending but there’s still activity”. KPRC-TV. Houston, Texas. Archived from the original on December 1, 2020. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
  5. ^ a b c d e f Jeff Masters (December 1, 2020). “A look back at the horrific 2020 Atlantic hurricane season”. Yale Climate Connections. Archived from the original on June 14, 2021. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  6. ^ Chris Dolce (May 28, 2020). “15 Years Ago, the Most Extreme Atlantic Hurricane Season on Record Began”. The Weather Channel. Archived from the original on August 10, 2021. Retrieved August 9, 2021.
  7. ^ Chris Perkins (May 12, 2021). “Hurricane Zeta reclassified as 7th major hurricane of the 2020 season, tying the 2005 record”. Sun-Sentinel. Archived from the original on June 26, 2021. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  8. ^ a b “Record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season draws to an end”. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. June 10, 2021. Archived from the original on September 9, 2021. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  9. ^ Atlantic basin Comparison of Original and Revised HURDAT. Hurricane Research Division; Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved August 6, 2017.
  10. ^ Philip Klotzbach; Michael Bell; Jhordanne Jones (June 3, 2021). “Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2021” (PDF). Fort Collins, Colorado: Colorado State University. p. 37. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 28, 2024. Retrieved August 10, 2021.
  11. ^ a b c Andrea Thompson; Amanda Montañez (December 1, 2020). “In 2020, Record-Breaking Hurricanes Arrived Early—and Often”. Scientific American. Archived from the original on May 16, 2021. Retrieved June 4, 2021.
  12. ^ Reed, Kevin A.; Wehner, Michael F.; Zarzycki, Colin M. (2022). “Attribution of 2020 hurricane season extreme rainfall to human-induced climate change”. Nature Communications. 13 (1): 1905. Bibcode:2022NatCo..13.1905R. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-29379-1. ISSN 2041-1723. PMC 9005694. PMID 35414063.
  13. ^ Theresa Machemer (May 21, 2021). “NOAA Predicts Another Above-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season”. Smithsonian. Archived from the original on August 10, 2021. Retrieved August 10, 2021.
  14. ^ Kimberly Miller; Gareth McGrath (April 6, 2020) [April 2, 2021]. “Hurricanes in a pandemic: ‘Absolutely that’s our nightmare scenario’“. USA Today. Archived from the original on April 3, 2020. Retrieved October 4, 2020.
  15. ^ James M. Schultz; Craig Fugate; Sandro Galea (August 12, 2020). “Cascading Risks of COVID-19 Resurgence During an Active 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season” (PDF). Journal of the American Medical Association. 324 (10): 935–936. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.15398. PMID 32897351. S2CID 221166201. Archived (PDF) from the original on August 15, 2020. Retrieved October 4, 2020.
  16. ^ Sen Pei; Kristina A. Dahl; Teresa K. Yamana; Rachel Licker; Jeffrey Shaman (December 1, 2020). “Compound Risks of Hurricane Evacuation Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States”. GeoHealth. 4 (12) e2020GH000319. Bibcode:2020GHeal…4..319P. doi:10.1029/2020GH000319. PMC 7704390. PMID 33299960.
  17. ^ Cite error: The named reference HannaTCR was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  18. ^ Cite error: The named reference IsaiasTCR was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  19. ^ Steve Bowen [@stevebowenwx] (July 30, 2020). “2020 joins 2005 as the most active July in the official record for named storm formation in the Atlantic Ocean” (Tweet). Retrieved July 31, 2020 – via Twitter.
  20. ^ Monthly Tropical Cyclone Summary (Report). National Hurricane Center. August 31, 2020. Archived from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved August 31, 2020.
  21. ^ Cite error: The named reference Laura2020TCR was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  22. ^ Cite error: The named reference Marco2020TCR was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  23. ^ a b “Tropical Cyclones – September 2020”. National Centers for Environmental Information. October 2020. Archived from the original on August 9, 2021. Retrieved August 9, 2021.
  24. ^ El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion (PDF) (Report). Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society. September 10, 2020. Archived (PDF) from the original on September 17, 2020. Retrieved September 26, 2020.
  25. ^ Lauren Gaches (September 10, 2020). “La Niña develops during peak hurricane season”. Archived from the original on September 23, 2020. Retrieved September 26, 2020.
  26. ^ Cite error: The named reference NanaTCR was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  27. ^ Cite error: The named reference PauletteTCR was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  28. ^ Cite error: The named reference Sally2020TCR was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  29. ^ Cite error: The named reference AL202020 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  30. ^ Daniel P. Brown (January 28, 2021). “Subtropical Storm Alpha” (PDF). Tropical Cyclone Report. National Hurricane Center. Archived (PDF) from the original on June 24, 2021. Retrieved February 2, 2021.
  31. ^ Cite error: The named reference AL222020 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  32. ^ Doyle Rice (November 30, 2020). “Record-shattering 2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially comes to an end”. USA Today. Archived from the original on July 1, 2021. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
  33. ^ Cite error: The named reference GammaTCR was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  34. ^ Cite error: The named reference DeltaTCR was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  35. ^ Cite error: The named reference AL272020 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  36. ^ Cite error: The named reference AL282020 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  37. ^ Cite error: The named reference Iota2020TCR was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  38. ^ a b c d Ken Graham (2021). “Record Breaking Hurricane Season 2020 and What’s New for 2021” (PDF). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived (PDF) from the original on August 10, 2021. Retrieved August 9, 2021.
  39. ^ National Weather Service Corpus Christi, Texas [@NWSCorpus] (November 16, 2020). “With 30 named storms in the Atlantic Basin in 2020 and 12 of them making US landfalls, every mile of the US Atlantic coast has been under a tropical watch or warning (TS, Hur, Storm Surge). A busy season for @NWSNHC and coastal NWS offices” (Tweet). Retrieved August 9, 2021 – via Twitter.

Cite error: There are <ref group=nb> tags on this page, but the references will not show without a {{reflist|group=nb}} template (see the help page).

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